Name

Definitely not. Because there is no proven, objective reason to search among the noise of the futures trades for reasons to move the spot market. The futures market does not move the price of spot assets. It always follows the price of spot assets.
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A promise to pay the difference (a bid reward) can't move the price of the real commodity. No matter what financial services salespeople tell you, it is physically impossible.
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It is possible to trade futures and options, they are liquidity for us, but to analyze them is to engage in self-deception.
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But if a market maker does decide to start manipulating the market, he will start pouring money into the spot market and shifting the balance of supply and demand, he will definitely leave a lot of traces and create a sustained deficit. And this we will notice (identify) fairly quickly. If he did not leave traces, it means that he did not affect the balance, and therefore he will not move the price.


Should you analyze the futures?

Anomaly (Greek ανωμαλία) - deviation from the norm, from the general picture, irregularity.
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In our case the anomaly is the increased number of transactions, increased volume, overshoot of delta between purchases and sales, large delta between the volumes of limit orders for purchase and sale. The anomaly can be understood by evaluating the dynamics of changing of these parameters over time.
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For example: If we see that the conditional demand was lower at an asset till today and the price hasn't risen yet, but the number of deals starts to grow and the number of BIDs in the order book grows - this is an abnormality, it is a sign of interest of the participants. If the interest will remain or grow, the participants will create a deficit (see [Deficit](#common?deficit)).

Anomaly

Apophenia is an experience consisting in the ability to see structure or relationships in random or meaningless data. The term was introduced in 1958 by the German neurologist and psychiatrist Klaus Conrad, who defined it as "unmotivated seeing of relationships" accompanied by a "characteristic sense of inadequate importance" (abnormal consciousness of meaning).
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Pareidolia, pareidolic illusion, is a type of visual illusion that occurs in both mentally disturbed and healthy individuals. It consists in the formation of illusory images, which are based on details of a real object. Thus, a vague and incomprehensible visual image is perceived as something distinct and definite - for example, figures of people, animals, or fairy creatures in clouds in the starry sky, wallpaper on a wall, or a carpet. In the mentally healthy, pareidolia can manifest itself, for example, as a false perception of an image of a person's face on the surface of the moon or Mars.
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Wave analysis, technical analysis figures, Gann's method, and other technical analysis occupy a place in our heads because of the effects of apophenia and pareidolia.

Apophenia and pareidolia

**Arbitrage** (from Fr. Arbitrage - a fair decision) is several logically connected transactions aimed to profit from the difference in prices of the same or related assets at the same time on different markets.
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Thanks to arbitrage algorithms, prices for the same asset do not vary significantly from market to market. If the price on one exchange has risen and not yet on the second exchange, the arbitrage algorithm buys on the second exchange at a low price, thereby raising the price and sells on the first exchange at a higher price, thereby lowering the price.
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Arbitrage does not only work on the same trading pairs. For example, a AAA conditional coin trades to BNB, BTC, ETH, XRP and USDT.
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If the AAA coin goes up in value due to its own appreciation, then against all quoted currencies its price will go up.
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Alternatively, the AAA coin's price may rise due to the depreciation of quoted currencies. For example, if the BNB against the USDT has fallen in price, the AAA price for the BNB will rise. At the same time, the AAA price for USDT will remain unchanged.
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Arbitrage algorithms not only equalize the price, but also distribute liquidity. The volume of money is finite. If market participants are actively selling AAA coin for BNB, the arbitrage algorithms, determining the scarcity, begin to move the volume of BNB from the BNB/USDT and BNB/BTC pairs, thereby increasing the value of BNB. These actions lead to a series of actions by other algorithms, resulting in increased volatility of the entire market.
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Another example: imagine that you have a coin and it is traded on 2 exchanges and each has 3-4 pairs. We need to equalize the price and balance the volume in the order book, so that someone does not move the value of the asset to the clouds or to the bottom. We can stop the growth of the price by our emissions. And we have to stop the fall in price with money. This means that we have to buy the quoted currency and put orders. Thus, when buying currencies, we affect the quoted currency.

Arrbitrage

Statistics from most brokerage firms in any market shows: 90% of traders lose 90% of their capital in 90 days.
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This fact allows a large number of forex kitchens to exist and also helps market makers not to hedge positions in the spot market.
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According to data from Market Stat, we know that the balance between buying and selling on liquid assets fluctuates around 50%. This means that the market maker's total position will be approximately neutral at the end of the calculation period. How much he sold, how much he bought.
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If the balance is negative at the end of the period, this difference will be covered by the return of the commissions. If the balance is positive, MM gets a good return.
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Other market participants who participate with their money in trades also help the MM to equalize the balance.

Market Maker Balance

We highly recommend to read the article Econometrics on Wikipedia. It is there where you will find all the necessary information about how and when the misconceptions about data analysis began. In the text below, replace the word "econometrics" with "technical analysis.
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In the early 1970s, Worswick sharply criticized econometricians for their "lack of connection to concrete facts. He argued that econometricians "are not so much engaged in inventing means of systematizing and measuring the available facts as they are in creating an innumerable multitude of pretended ways of doing so. At the same time, F. Brown argued that "the construction of time series regressions is only good for deception. V. Leontiev characterized econometrics as "an attempt to compensate for the conspicuous lack of available data by extensive use of more and more sophisticated statistical techniques".
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Thus, Mises wrote: "They are unable to understand that in the field of human activity statistics is always history, and that hypothetical correlations and functions describe nothing but what happened at a certain point in time in a certain geographical area as the result of the activities of a certain number of people. As a method of economic analysis, econometrics is a childish numbers game that adds nothing to the explanation of problems of economic reality."
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Keynes writes: "Econometric analysis becomes like "children's puzzles where you have to write your age, multiply it by something, add something else, subtract something else, and finally get the number of the beast from St. John the Evangelist's Revelation.

Reasons for TA arising

**Deficit** (Latin deficit "lack", deficio "to be poor") is a shortage of something. The excess of aggregate demand over aggregate supply. A shortage of a resource or factor of production.
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In the market, it is a lack of volume of an asset at certain prices. A shortage of volume to sell always leads to an increase in price.

Deficit

A futures contract is a derivative financial instrument (contract) concluded on an exchange for buying or selling an underlying asset (commodity, security, etc.) where the parties (seller and buyer) agree only on the price level and delivery date. The other parameters of the asset (quantity, quality, packaging, marking, etc.) are specified in advance in the specification of the exchange contract and are standard for that trading floor. The parties fulfill their obligations to the exchange up to the fulfillment of the futures contract.

Definition

Technical analysis is a set of tools for predicting likely price changes based on patterns of past price changes in similar circumstances. It is based on the analysis of price graphs. Technical analysis is most widespread in highly liquid free markets. (Wikipedia)

The gambler's error or false Monte Carlo deduction reflects a common misunderstanding of the randomness of events. It is related to the fact that a person is usually not intuitively aware of the fact that the probability of each subsequent outcome does not depend on the previous outcomes of a random event.
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Probability theory treats each event separately as independent of the previous ones.
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Example: In the case of a coin flip, there is a 50% chance that 9 tails in a row will fall. If the coin is "normal" ("right"), then for many people it seems obvious that the next flip of a coin will have a higher probability: it is hard to believe that "tails" can fall for the tenth time in a row. However, such a conclusion is erroneous. The probability of the next heads or tails roll is still 1/2.
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Because of the effect of apothecia and pareidolia, it is even easier for people using price analysis to draw false conclusions. And random successes perpetuate the misconception.


False Monte Carlo deduction

We all want to trade one asset. Because we don't want to waste time looking for it.
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We remember that a coin made x3 and now the price is down again. We expect it to do x again and we don't want to miss it. We want to "understand" this asset. However, that's not how the market works.
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But! Let's be honest – we are not interested in the asset, but in the probability that it will rise again. That's why we need to understand not a single asset, but the mechanism of the market and the balance of the market. That's where the truth is! If we, instead of looking for coins that have anomalies, follow the ones we like, we'll miss the good stuff and end up with nothing. We should not wait and think, but look for what has already happened or is happening now.

Favorite coin / asset

It does not and will not exist. All of our chat rooms are designed to form a professional community of traders. Communicating on free topics in professional chats is unacceptable, because it turns the work process into a clownery, and the chat room itself into a "spam machine". Distraction of the trader during work can lead to mistakes, incorrect decisions and loss of capital. That's why there is strict moderation in all chat rooms.

Floodbuster / Deleting messages

It is an imbalance between the volume of purchases and the volume of sales.
Signs of imbalance are called anomalies (see [Anomaly](#common?anomaly)).

Disbalance

The trading volumes in the settlement derivatives market are not equal to the trading volumes in the spot market. They are completely different markets, which have nothing in common with each other except for the name of the underlying asset. A derivative is a liability, not an actual commodity. You can't buy a commodity by placing a bet.
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Futures come in delivery and settlement. And the market maker's balance can be negative because the market maker or counterparty can enter the spot market at any time to hedge his positions or buy the underlying asset.
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In practice, for deliverable futures the underlying asset is or will be available at the time of settlement. Therefore, there is no need to take it from the market additionally.
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Position hedging is also very rare. Because market makers are usually ready to meet their own needs. Besides, a market maker needs only money to conduct mutual settlements. The underlying asset does not take part in the settlement futures trade, because it is only an obligation to pay the difference.
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It is necessary to hedge positions only when the balance is heavily skewed. This can occur when the spot market is highly volatile.
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Therefore, theoretically, those who hedge their positions when the balance is highly skewed will have an impact. In practice it is very rare.
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P.S.: Any deal is a commission, the market maker is a participant who calculates his profit better than any retail trader, so he will not do unnecessary operations to hedge positions. It is not financially profitable.


Impact of the futures market on the spot market

Most financial market participants have false beliefs about how that market functions and what laws govern it.
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Subjected to the Dunning-Krueger effect, which is "People with low skill levels draw erroneous conclusions and are unable to recognize their mistakes because of their low skill levels," participants become hostage to their own false beliefs and are unable to see an objective market situation.
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The first step on the way to an objective understanding of the market is to get rid of false beliefs.
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This, of course, contributes to the growth of the deposit.

Foreword

The price change is a consequence of the volume change.
No indicator reflects the real state of the market, because it is impossible to analyze the price to understand how much money is waiting in the bids and how much money has already been involved in the transactions.
Not a single candlestick configuration does not predict further arbitrage action.
Not a single "support" line shows the real state of demand for an asset. Moreover, it does not predict even the potential appearance of money in the order books.
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Not a single technical analysis figure shows the balance between supply and demand.
No "wave" predicts people's future behavior. It can't know if people will still buy, it doesn't know motives which push participants to make transactions.
No Fibonacci zone guarantees the appearance of money in the order books, much less guarantees that even when the prices, buyers will buy creating a "correction."

The main reason for low TA efficiency

For example, a brokerage firm may be a market maker (MM). According to a contract with the exchange it undertakes to keep simultaneously placed orders with the difference between prices of purchase and sale not more than the stipulated value for the stipulated time, the exchange gives certain advantages to a market maker, for example payment of commissions.
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The market maker on the futures market is a counterparty who fills order books with orders. He undertakes to buy and sell the asset. His task is to prevent large price spikes and price gaps between the quote and the price of the spot asset.
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A common misconception: The market maker takes money, pulls down stops and always makes money.
The answer is that the market maker is always in the order book and is always executing incoming orders. At the same minute MM can sell 1000 BTC contracts and buy 1000 BTC contracts with limit orders. The MM is the same market participant, as the retail trader, he doesn't know the future, so he can't know where the price will go. Constant execution of all participants levels the profitability of MM in case of traders' errors. Because of the specifics of MM, it is very difficult to take out the stops, his balance and the potential reputational risks with penalties from the exchange will not allow it.
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The most important indicator for MM is its total balance (see Market Maker Balance).

Market maker

There are two sides: the Sell Side and the Buy Side.
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The Sell Side is the side of the sellers of services. Exchanges, brokers, software, analytics, news, investment funds. It is this side that is more responsible for the development of the market infrastructure and the industry. They adjust the direction of development.
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The Buy Side is all the participants who take advantage of everything the Sell Side offers. Because the Buy Side pays a large number of commissions, the Sell Side has the opportunity to develop the industry and make its services cheaper.
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The Buy Side can be roughly divided into those who invest a lot and long term, medium term investments and short term speculation (including HFT, LFT and arbitrage). The higher the amount of capital, the longer the duration of a position's set up and, consequently, the longer the period of exiting the position.
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The higher the amount of capital, the lower the impact of ad hoc decisions. Large capital creates sustained deficits and has the greatest impact on asset prices. It is large capital that buys all price declines, averaging out its investors' positions, thereby stopping the price decline. Or, by dumping, it strengthens the overall trend.
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The other groups of participants create daily volatility by creating and eliminating deficits everywhere.

Market participants

Texas sharpshooter fallacy is a term from methodology that describes a fallacy where only similar data are taken while different data are ignored, leading to incorrect conclusions.
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The expression "Texas sharpshooter fallacy" is taken from a story about a Texan who first shoots at a barn and then, at the place where the largest number of holes appeared, draws a target, claiming his supposedly successful hits.
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For example, in the market, when parameters for a "predicting" algorithm are optimized according to some data set, and correctness of a prediction model is checked using the same data. Or when indicators and trading bots are adjusted to the history, testing on the same history.

Texas sharpshooter fallacy

Derivative - an agreement (contract) whereby the parties obtain the right or undertake an obligation to perform certain actions with regard to the underlying asset.
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A derivative has the following characteristics:
Its value changes following a change in the price of the underlying asset (interest rate, price of a commodity or security, exchange rate, price or rate index, credit rating or credit index or other variable).
It requires little initial outlay as compared to other instruments whose prices react in a similar way to changes in market conditions.
Settlements on it are made in the future.
Example: The price of a Bitcoin futures on a CME exchange is based on prices from several spot exchanges.
Click here for more details.
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In trades in settled derivatives, there is no spot asset involved. Participants simply agree to pay each other the difference between the transaction price and the final price.
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The quoted futures price may be different from the underlying asset. The market maker and participants may or may not match the price. This depends on a variety of factors, mainly the market maker's internal balance sheet (see Market maker).

Price formation

Market making, like any other business, is a risk. Market making is profitable when you have your own exchange and enough active people who trade and perform all the functions of a market maker, while you, at no risk, receive a commission on transactions and simply ensure that the total balance of quotations is 50/50.
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In all other cases, market making is profitable only with very large capitals and only on an annual basis.


Is it profitable to be engaged in market making?

If you are interested in an asset, you first need to open it through the Resonance platform, look at the cluster chart, look at this asset to all pairs on all available exchanges, look at all types of charts: volume, delta, number of trades.
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If you notice any unusual activity, you need to take a screenshot of this activity and drop it into the chat with the hashtag of the coin (e.g. #GAS or #XLM) and a description of what you see.
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This will help you better understand for yourself what you see. It will also help others notice what they may have missed. It will help others learn. It will make our community effective in finding good trading ideas.
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Before you post, check through a search for this hashtag to see if someone has already analyzed this asset recently. And your post may be able to supplement or update it.

Recommendations for message design

**Regularity**
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For example, the demand for warm clothing increases in winter. All clothing retailers know this, and they begin to offer more warm clothing. The competition grows. Over time, the pattern reaches a state where it is possible to make money only at the cost of large investments.
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**Inefficiency**
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Inefficiency should be capitalized on. If the city's point A to point B passenger distribution is poorly performing, this is a great opportunity to set up a distribution company and make a profit.
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By eliminating inefficiencies, we attract attention and increase competition. By making the market more efficient, we generate interest from participants with money, thereby developing the market. And new entrants create other inefficiencies, by eliminating which we make money.
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It's a vicious circle that results in increased quality of service and higher standards of living.
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An efficient market is a stable balance in the volume of buyers and sellers. When the price does not go up, and there are more buyers and fewer sellers, then there is a shortage, and that is inefficiency, which should soon come to a balance and, as a consequence, an increase in price.

Regularity or ineffectiveness

Yes, we are a sect (lat. secta – school, doctrine). Our doctrine is to cut off anything that is not proven by facts, figures, or at least common sense. Truth cannot be criticized or questioned. Fantasy and wishful thinking are very shaky grounds that we immediately discard. That is why we do not use technical analysis (TA), wave analysis, mathematical indicators, VSA, Price Action, candlestick patterns and so on.
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Random coincidence does not produce stable results. That is why we only rely on supply and demand analysis on the spot market.
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Sometimes we speak sharply. In particular, when a person appears in the chats who correlates us with TA. After a while he either becomes completely disappointed in TA or leaves us. It's not easy to accept the fact that TA is ineffective, that a line drawn on the monitor doesn't add money to the order book. That's why dialogues on these topics are meaningless and suppressed by the community.
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We are against the use of inefficient, unproven methods of market analysis. Spending time to prove ourselves otherwise is ineffective. Millions of people in the world have failed to prove it. We won't be a million first.

Sect

The market is three parameters: time, price, and volume. Participants exchange volume at different times at different prices. When participants can't see each other, they can't negotiate. They can only offer their volume at some price (a limit order) and buy the volume that is available at some price (a market order).
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If the buyers have more money than the volume of the asset at the current price, the buyers will buy all of the volume and the price of the asset will go higher, and the asset will be in deficit. A volume deficit always leads to a change in price.
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Volume deficit is the cause, price change is the effect.

Cause and effect (supply and demand)

No. It never did.
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A change in price is a consequence of volume behavior. And volume behavior is a consequence of the actions of market participants (see Market Participants).
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Proponents of technical analysis say that when the price reaches a certain level the participants will start buying. Technically they're right: they will buy as well as sell. Because the market is all buying and selling. You can't buy if you won't be sold.
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It's presumptuous to claim in advance that when a certain price point is reached, the amount of money in buyers will exceed the amount of assets in sellers, and that after all the purchases have been made, they will have capital to continue trading (see Arbitrage).
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The false Monte Carlo deduction and the Texas sharpshooter fallacy vividly describe this fallacy.


Does TA describe the psychology of participants?

Frequently asked question

In deliverable futures the buyer shall buy and the seller shall sell the quantity of the underlying asset stipulated in the specification on the date of the contract execution. Delivery is made at the settlement price fixed on the last trading date. In case the contract expires, but the seller is out of the goods, the exchange imposes a fine.
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Cash-settled (non-deliverable) futures implies that the participants settle on the difference between the contract price and the actual asset price on the contract date without delivery of the underlying asset. It is commonly used for risk hedging purposes, changes in the price of the underlying asset or for speculative purposes.


Futures types

VSA (Volume spread analysis) - a method of graphical analysis based on the identification of patterns and relationships between changes in trading volume price at a certain time interval and its influence on subsequent quotes of the trading instrument.

You might think that if the word volume appears here, then it is effective. But no. In this method, price analysis is the key.
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For example:
Shorting of Thrust (SOT) - selling attempt - a signal when a sale is moving up and trying to get past some level that someone is selling (Wikipedia).
Up-Thrust - a manipulative signal where price makes an attempt to go up (Wikipedia).
VSA uses candlestick charts (see Candlestick chart, section TA). This method discards the presence of arbitrage algorithms and the concept of market balance. VSA rejects the presence of volume manipulation and spoofing.
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All VSA analysts without exception claim that any price movement is market maker's manipulation. If a person put a stop loss under a level and the price went down there so that their stop loss triggered, they claim that the MM took their money. Listening to such analysts, you get the impression that there are only two people in the market: the market maker and he. That the price was lowered not by active sales on the spot market, but by MM's desire to take the trader's money (see Arbitrage).


What is wrong with VSA

Liquidity is capital. And any capital affects the market. The analyst's task is to determine the balance of the asset (the state of balance between supply and demand). The trader's task is to calculate the liquidity of the asset, assess the amount of capital under management and evaluate the permissible position size for the given liquidity of the asset, calculate the risk per trade and gain a position. If necessary, to exit a position without upsetting the balance of the market.
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Each asset has its own balance. Each trader has its own volume of capital. Decision-making on prices and volumes of entry and exit is a matter for each trader. What is acceptable for one is unacceptable for another. One looks at the scale of the last hour, someone looks at the scale of the last year. One has $100 capital, the other has $100,000.

Where are the signals?

First of all, in the market, it is the calculation of risks that is important, not profits.
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Everyone has an opportunity to enter a growing market successfully and multiply capital. Only we all know millions of examples where people lost everything on a single trade. The size of the profit is proportional to the size of the risk (see Level 6 training).
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Psychological pressure: when a person has already understood market principles and uses only supply and demand analysis he is more likely to stick to risk management. But if he is stimulated by showing other people's successes and big ROIs, he may start to feel inferior and want to do the same. He will probably start to increase his risk per trade (increasing his position volume with or without leverage).
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Yerkes-Dodson's law (motivation level as an inverted "U"): when there is little reward, the work is done "offhand". In proportion to the growth of the reward, the effort put in increases. In this case, the excitement from other participants increases and, as a consequence, the number of errors increases due to psychological pressure. Conclusion: weak motivation is insufficient, and excessive is harmful.
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As a result - drained capital and disappointment in everything: the market, tools, people around.

Why don't we share deposit growth numbers

The market is liquidity.
Liquidity is money.
When we trade, we make a lot of transactions.
A lot of trading is liquidity for those who trade intraday and execution of orders of large investors who gain a position over the long term.
A lot of trades means commissions for exchanges and brokers.
The earnings of exchanges and brokers contribute to the development of infrastructure and increase the number of people in the market. Accordingly, liquidity will increase.
The better the infrastructure is developed, the more arbitrage algorithms and the less price manipulation. Less manipulation makes the market more secure, which attracts traders and investors.
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We share working strategies so that more people will come to the market. Because everyone will get what they want, traders get volatility and liquidity, funds get liquidity and perspective, exchanges get liquidity and commissions, product companies get clients and infrastructure to develop further.
Resonance will get a professional community, changing the usual ways of doing things.

Why we share a working trading strategy for free

To analyze the market, you need the most current and up-to-date information on supply and demand now, not in a historical perspective. It is important to spend a minimum of time evaluating the current state of a single asset. That's why the charts are set up for the fastest possible viewing and show the most necessary information. 
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If we did not see anything unusual immediately, then why look closely into the chart and try to find something there? It's better to look through hundreds of assets and find really obvious trading opportunities than to try to make them up where they don't exist.

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Customize the appearance and grouping of data in the cluster chart

Chart settings

Take interactive lessons to learn how to analyze volumes

Course

You can start onboarding again by activating it in your account at any time.

Here you can learn about all the tool settings and parameters. Helps are available in each window

Helps

Turn the common axis mode on or off to see the change of each line on the chart

Axis

Change the data type, timeframe and filter the asset table

Chart customization

Tool for searching and analyzing delta by volume and quantity, evaluation of balances of indexes and individual tickers

Market Delta

Analyze all ticker groups together or individually by switching tabs

Ticker groups

Click on the name of a ticker in the table and add its indicators to the general chart

Selecting tickers

Analyze the total volume of transactions relative to the average balance (blue line)

Graph of the ratio of volume to average balance

Click the button and study the balance per individual assets in the Market Delta tool

Go to Market Delta

Select data type, timeframe and range displayed on the chart

Block of chart settings

Shows what prevails on the market: buying or selling

The delta histogram and the average balance chart

Compare volumes of all index groups represented on the platform

Volume comparison chart

Hover your mouse over the graph and get a numeric indication of the selected volume on the chart

Volume index

Switch the graph type to evaluate all types of data: volume, delta by volume, and number of trades and their delta

Chart type

A tool for fast evaluation of large amounts of data. Speeds up asset search by up to 16 times

Screener

Select tickers and exchanges and sort them by different parameters

Filtering and sorting

Change the number of graphs on the screen. Grid selection speeds up the asset selection process

Grid

Click Search and download graphs using the filters you choose

Search

Hi, I'm Ayres, Resonance's artificial intelligence. Now I'll briefly explain to you how our platform works.


Let's start Market Delta?

Hi, I'm Ayres, Resonance's artificial intelligence. Now I'll briefly explain to you how our platform works.


Let's start Market Stat?

Hi, I'm Ayres, Resonance's artificial intelligence. Now I'll briefly explain to you how our platform works.


Let's start RTT?

Hi, I'm Ayres, Resonance's artificial intelligence. Now I'll briefly explain to you how our platform works.


Let's start Screener?

Hover your cursor over the cluster or histogram and get information about volumes

Tooltip

Save your analytical ideas in notes. Manage your notes in your personal account

Notes

Choose the windows and tools that will be displayed on the screen

Window settings

In the pairs tree, select an exchange, ticker and pair to open them on the cluster chart